GOP spends millions against Adam Gray as redrawn Central Valley district favors Democrats

Republicans are investing millions of dollars to defeat Democratic Rep. Adam Gray in California’s 13th Congressional District, betting that former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln can overcome boundaries that now favor Democrats. Gray, whose district stretches from Stockton along State Route 99 to Merced, won the nation’s closest U.S. House contest in 2024 by just 187 votes.

That victory over Republican incumbent John Duarte reversed Gray’s 564-vote loss to Duarte two years earlier. This election brings more favorable conditions for Gray: national polling points toward Democratic gains, and California voters’ approval of Proposition 50 last fall strengthened his party’s position through congressional redistricting. The Cook Political Report shifted the contest from a toss-up to leaning Democratic in January.

Republican leaders nevertheless see an opportunity. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership, had spent more than $4.34 million on the contest as of Oct. 11, according to the latest available campaign filing. The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC had spent less than $400,000. House Speaker Mike Johnson also traveled to Chowchilla to support Lincoln, while House Democrats’ campaign chair, Rep. Suzan DelBene, joined Gray at a Modesto canvassing event.

Lincoln, a Marine Corps veteran who served aboard the presidential helicopter Marine One, is campaigning on affordability, lower taxes and reductions in government waste. He has not specified which taxes or programs he would cut. He also advocates investment in law enforcement and opposes returning to Biden-era immigration policies at the Southern border. Lincoln argues that concerns such as household costs and water access cross party lines.

Both candidates are seeking voters registered as Democrats who have historically supported some Republicans. Lincoln points to his 2020 mayoral victory over progressive Democrat Michael Tubbs as evidence of his appeal beyond the GOP. Stockton’s violent crime rate reached a 15-year low by the time Lincoln left office in 2025, alongside a national decline. Democrats counter that police staffing shortages during his tenure forced limits on the calls officers answered. Lincoln attributes those difficulties to nationwide recruitment and retention problems.

Much of the Republican campaign targets Gray’s decade in the California Legislature, particularly his support for a 2017 transportation measure that raised the state gasoline tax by 12 cents per gallon and increased vehicle registration fees. Funding secured for Gray’s district included $100 million for the 4.5-mile Campus Parkway connection between Highways 99 and 140 in Merced County, providing access toward UC Merced.

Republicans allege Gray improperly benefited after a construction company owned by his cousin, in which Gray holds a minority stake, received a contract to build a hotel near the road. A Congressional Leadership Fund advertisement alleges he pocketed $400,000 from the road allocation. House financial disclosures show Gray received more than $366,000 from the company, Marvulli, in 2023 and 2024; those disclosures do not themselves establish the advertisement’s allegation.

Gray emphasizes his work with Republicans in Congress. The House passed his telehealth legislation with Rep. David Valadao and a geothermal energy measure developed with Rep. Young Kim earlier this year. The California Farm Bureau endorsed him in April, citing cooperation across party lines on water access and agricultural technology grants.

Gray says sustained personal outreach can counter Republicans’ spending advantage, with his team holding door-knocking events nearly every weekend since he took office. At the Modesto gathering, volunteers were reminded how narrowly he won. Introducing DelBene, Gray joked that he had promised a victory of at least 188 votes this time.